Mosher: The 5 most overrated numbers regarding 2019 NFL Draft

Why you shouldn't worry about Kyler Murray's number of college starts or Jonah Williams' arm length

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Number of career starts for Kyler Murray: 17

Believe it or not, a lot of NFL teams still care about the number of starts a quarterback makes in college. Bill Parcells once developed a set of rules for drafting a quarterback, and the league has loved it ever since. One of those rules was to only draft quarterbacks who have started at least 30 games in college. Another rule was that the quarterback must be a three-year starter who graduated college.

Unfortunately, Oklahoma's Kyler Murray doesn't check any of those boxes. He only became Oklahoma's full-time starter in 2018, appearing in all 14 games for the Sooners. If Murray was so great in college, why didn't he start more games? That would likely be a question someone following Parcells' rules blindly would ask. But this is where having concrete rules can be difficult. Murray played behind 2017 Heisman Trophy Winner Baker Mayfield, who was the most prolific passer in college football history.

What I care about is how well Murray played when he was on the field and given an opportunity to start. He only became the 2018 Heisman Trophy Winner, setting multiple records at Oklahoma with both his arm and his legs. Murray's limited number of starts shouldn't scare teams off because of how successful he was in 2018.

There is also a precedent for this in the NFL. We have seen talented one-year wonders excel in college and then continue to be successful in the NFL. Cam Newton is a player who comes to mind after starting just 14 career games at Auburn. Like Murray, Newton was forced to transfer early in his career and only got one year of major collegiate experience before becoming the No. 1 overall selection in the 2011 draft. Mitchell Trubisky is another player with limited college experience (13 starts) who became a premium pick (No. 2 overall in 2017). Even Aaron Rodgers started only 22 career games at Cal and has become arguably the league's best passer. Starts clearly shouldn't be the end-all, be-all when it comes to the quarterback position.

At the end of the day, ability is what matters here. If Kyler Murray can play, then it doesn't matter if he had 17 career starts or 50. He has shown that he can dominate on the biggest of stages and should be the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NFL draft.

Josh Jacobs career rushes: 251

By many accounts, Alabama's Josh Jacobs is the clear-cut top running back in this year's class. (Editor's note: Penn State's Miles Sanders is PFW draft expert Greg Gabriel's RB1.)

Like most of the Alabama runners to enter the NFL draft over the past decade, he has power and the ability to make defenders miss inside of the tackle box. He's got the size and the body armor to be an every-down back in the NFL.

However, what he doesn't have compared to other Alabama backs is the college production. In his three-year career at Alabama, Jacobs rushed for only 1,491 yards on 251 carries. That pales in comparison to other Crimson Tide runners who were selected inside the top 100 picks since 2011:

2011 – Mark Ingram – 572 carries for 3,261 yards and 42 TDs.

2012 – Trent Richardson – 540 carries for 3,130 yards and 35 TDs.

2013 – Eddie Lacy – 355 carries for 2,402 yards and 30 TDs.

2015 – T.J. Yeldon – 576 carries for 3,322 yards and 37 TDs.

2016 – Kenyan Drake – 233 carries for 1,495 yards and 18 TDs.

2016 – Derrick Henry – 602 carries for 3,591 yards and 42 TDs.

While it's true that Jacobs doesn't have the college production of an Ingram, Richardson or Henry, he also doesn't have the same wear and tear on his body. In fact, you can make an argument that Jacobs' lack of touches at the college level is a positive for him entering the NFL. He is likely to be fresher than many other running backs coming into the league, meaning that he could have more success right away. As long as you are comfortable with Jacobs' game and talent level, the lack of career carries should be an easy thing to look past.

67 career receptions for D.K. Metcalf

For most of the draft season, Mississippi's D.K. Metcalf has been the top receiver in the class. Once Metcalf ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, it likely secured his spot for many evaluators. However, some people also are worried about Metcalf's lack of production in college.

During his three years at Ole Miss, Metcalf totaled only 67 career receptions in 21 games. His best season ever came in 2017, when he caught 39 passes in 12 starts. On the surface, that is concerning, as players with his lack of production usually aren't drafted early. Since the NFL Draft became seven rounds long, only three receivers were selected in the first round after catching less than 70 passes in college:

2002 - Javon Walker (65)

2013 - Cordarrelle Patterson (46)

2005 - Matt Jones (0)

Patterson was mostly used as a running back in college, while Jones was exclusively a quarterback at Arkansas. Both were picked early because of their freakish athleticism. Walker went on to have the best career of the three, making the Pro Bowl in 2004. However, as you can see, players with this limited of production just aren’t selected early very often.

But none of those three players were as gifted a receiver as Metcalf, who was incredibly productive while he was on the field, averaging 18.3 yards per reception. He also was forced to share the ball in the same offense with A.J. Brown and Dawson Knox, two players also likely to be early draft picks, if not first-rounders.

But the biggest reason Metcalf lacked college production was that he dealt with injuries throughout his career. Metcalf missed the final four-plus games of the 2018 season with a neck injury. As a freshman, he only played two games as he suffered a foot injury that ended his season. Talent has never been the issue with Metcalf; it's just his sketchy injury history that makes me nervous.

In the NFL, don't expect Metcalf to be a player with high reception totals. It would be surprising if he ever had a season with more than 80 catches. Where he is going to make his money is as a down-the-field weapon that can make big plays at any given time. Expect the low reception total but high yards-per-catch average to continue in the NFL.

Jonah Williams Arm Length: 33 5/8"

NFL draft evaluators love to talk about arm length for offensive linemen and its importance. However, there is little correlation that shows players with longer arms have better careers than players with shorter arms. While it's never bad to have long arms, it isn't a requirement for offensive linemen in the NFL.

That's why Alabama OT Jonah Williams' lack of hype in the 2019 draft doesn't make a lot of sense to me. He was the best offensive lineman in all of college football last season, a consensus All-American. According to Pro Football Focus, Williams allowed only 12 total pressures last season, never allowing more than one in a single game. We know coming from the SEC that he is battle tested and faced elite competition every week.

However, despite his production, stability, and versatility, Williams has been knocked by some evaluators for his arm length. At the NFL Combine, his arm length was measured at 33 5/8". According to Mockdraftable, that puts him in the 26th percentile for all offensive tackles since 1999. For many teams across the league, this means he won't be able to play tackle in the NFL. However, the league is currently loaded with offensive tackles who have sub-34" arms. Take a look at several notable players currently in the league with below-average arm length:

Ty Sambrailo - 33

Jason Peters - 33 1/8

La'el Collins - 33 1/4

Riley Reiff - 33 1/4

Bryan Bulaga - 33 1/4

Jake Matthews - 33 3/8

Mitchell Schwartz - 33 1/2

Marcus Gilbert - 33 1/2

Taylor Decker - 33 3/4

Rob Havenstein - 33 3/4

Ryan Ramczyk - 33 3/4

Taylor Lewan - 33 7/8

Considering how dominant Williams was in college, he should have no problem making the transition to the NFL at tackle. Even if a team doesn't view him as a tackle, he has experience playing inside as well, giving him more value. Williams could have a Zack Martin-like career at guard or center if forced to play inside, but there are no physical limitations that suggest a move is required. Williams is one of the best dozen players in this draft and should be picked relatively early.

Ed Oliver's Sack Total: 13

Ed Oliver of Houston is one of the most athletic defensive linemen we have ever seen enter the NFL draft. He is an exceptional athlete who deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Aaron Donald. However, one thing that is holding people back from comparing him to Donald is his low sack total. Despite playing at Houston, Oliver recorded just 13 career sacks in 33 games. Donald, on the other hand, had two seasons at Pittsburgh with at least 11 sacks, totaling 29 sacks in his career.

To some, that lack of production is nerve-racking, especially when projecting an undersized defensive tackle from the American Athletic Conference. But of all the stats listed in this piece, his lack of sack production may be the single most overrated stat during this draft process for a few different reasons.

The biggest reason not to be concerned is that sack production in college isn't overly predictive of NFL success. In fact, even in the NFL, sack totals can be somewhat fluky. Instead, tackle for loss production is a better indicator of future success. Oliver was dominant in this area, tallying 54 total tackles for loss in his career. As a freshman, he had 23 tackles for loss, which is the second most by a defensive tackle since 2010. The only player to have more in a single season was Donald in 2013 (28.5).

What makes Oliver's TFL production even more impressive is the way that he was used at Houston. According to Pro Football Focus, no player in his draft class rushed the passer more as a zero-technique (nose tackle) than Oliver. He was forced to take on blocks and was often double- and sometimes triple-teamed. In the NFL, he won't see that type of attention, as he will hopefully be used as an under tackle in a 4-3.

Oliver is a rare player with elite production and athleticism. Don't overthink his limited sacks in college, where he proved he could be a dominant player against top competition. With the change in scheme, it wouldn't be a surprise if Oliver had multiple double-digit sack seasons in the NFL.

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